6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 27. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and Florida Peninsula today. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
Southeast
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to advance southward this morning across southern LA/MS/AL into the FL Panhandle and southern GA. This front will decelerate and stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. While diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will occur ahead of the front, relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development of any more than weak instability. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may occur, the weak instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.