11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 27. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Southeast/Florida
Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to warrant much risk of severe.
As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates.