6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 27. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.
01z Update
Notable midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across northern OK/southern MO early this evening. Synoptic front has settled south to a position from southeast TN-northern MS-central AR. While LLJ is primarily focused off the NC coast, weak low-level warm advection is noted across the Mid-south ahead of the progressive short wave. Scattered convection has developed along this corridor, and several supercells are noted from east central AR to northern AL. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail is observed with the most robust updrafts golf ball size hail has been reported with a few of these supercells. While scattered convection will continue ahead of the digging short wave, nocturnal cooling should begin to affect updraft strength a bit such that overall intensity of this activity is expected to gradually weaken. Even so, hail/wind are expected through at least mid evening until low-level lapse rates begin to adjust to cooling surface temperatures.