6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, February 26. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of hail will be possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening.
Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama
Increasingly cyclonic flow aloft is expected as trough amplification occurs with a shortwave trough spreading southeastward across the south-central Plains, toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex this evening, and the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will similarly advect southeastward atop a modestly moist air mass to the south of a southward-spreading front regionally. While southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL will be modest-strength and tend to weaken over time, strong mid/high-level winds will yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify through mid/late afternoon. Severe hail is expected to be the primary hazard.