12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 27. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Discussion
A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida Peninsula.
Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist, gradually shifting south and east through the period. While thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and limited instability.
Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary. Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall diurnal heating.
Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing, will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized severe threat.
Florida Peninsula
South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm development appears possible during the day on Friday across the Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb, although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and below severe limits.