6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Discussion
West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay. An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely. Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated convection.