12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Thursday, February 26. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a couple of strong wind gusts.
Discussion
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains is forecast to weaken as it tracks southwest toward the Gulf Coast states during the day Thursday. At the surface, a low initially located across central Texas will shift southward during the day, leaving an elongated area of low pressure stretching east-northeast along a residual surface front. This boundary is expected to sag slowly southward through the day, though low-level convergence along the front appears weak.
Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast
Boundary-layer moisture will be characterized by dewpoints perhaps as high as mid 60Fs across the northern Gulf Coast decreasing to mid 50Fs across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The strongest instability is expected across Louisiana, where MUCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg. However, forecast soundings across this region indicate a notable capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb. Further north and east, the airmass will be characterized by lesser instability but much weaker capping inversion.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of the sagging surface front. The overall severe threat should be limited owing to the meager instability and the weakening nature of the primary forcing mechanism. Additionally, low-level shear is notably weaker than previous model runs -- continuing the trend started yesterday.
Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer shear persists to support organized linear modes, especially with the stronger convective elements. While the lack of stronger low-level forcing and meager low-level buoyancy should prevent a widespread event, the more robust convective segments will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging wind gusts.