11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Discussion
Within a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance southeastward from the northern Plains to the middle MS Valley through the period. Despite limited boundary-layer moisture through this corridor, steepening lapse rates and focused ascent accompanying the impulse will support southeastward-spreading convection with isolated lightning potential across the central Plains toward the middle MS Valley during the afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Enhanced low-level flow within a well-mixed boundary layer may promote locally strong gusts with initial convection over the central High Plains, though weak buoyancy should limit severe potential. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms are also possible within a developing warm-advection wing over the lower OH and TN Valleys late in the period.