12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.
Discussion
A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight near the Red River.
Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector. However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area.
Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms.