1AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the Tennessee Valley.
Discussion
A fast moving, positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in the broad northwest flow across the US will move from the Interior Pacific Northwest to Iowa/Missouri during the forecast period. At the surface, southerly winds to the east of a broad lee trough will begin drawing warm air and Gulf moisture northward through the day on Wednesday, ultimately aiding the development of a northwest-to-southeast oriented warm front stretching from Nebraska to Alabama/Georgia.
In response to the approaching shortwave trough, southwesterly low-level winds will strengthen across Texas into the Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation will likely develop in response to this increasing moist isentropic ascent. Forecast soundings from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley indicate sufficient moistening just above the boundary layer to support up to 500 J/kg of elevated instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. As of now, the weak instability should limit any severe threat with these elevated storms.