12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, February 24. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
Discussion
Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and instability should preclude thunderstorm development.
A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday.
Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.