11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, February 23. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected.
Discussion
Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period. While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder today.
Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region and thunderstorms are not anticipated.