6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 22. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Discussion
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening. Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection will remain low.
For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone.
Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within this warm-advection regime.