10AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 21. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING .
SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.
Southeast States
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However, occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.