7AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 21. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES
SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.
Southeast States
Clustered bands of thunderstorms have increased across east-central Mississippi and central Alabama into northwest/west-central Georgia during the predawn hours. These elevated storms are occurring on the immediate cool side of a front that is draped west/southwest-east/northeast across the region. These storms may further increase and organize early today. The aggregating storm mode and residually warm mid-level temperatures/modest mid-level lapse rates should tend to temper hail potential. However, the storms may become surface-based with time owing to diurnal heating cycle and potential gradual cold pool-related storm propagation toward the warm/moist side of the front where upper 60s F surface dewpoints will persist through peak boundary layer mixing. This scenario will potentially contribute to damaging wind potential into late morning, and more so this afternoon across southeast Alabama into southwest/south-central Georgia. Additional strong/severe storm development may occur farther west later this afternoon across a broader part of far southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle near the front.
Low-level shear is initially strong but low-level flow is veered west-southwesterly and will tend to weaken over time. Regardless, long semi-unidirectional hodographs, particularly above 2.5 km AGL, will persist with 50+ kt effective shear. This will support organized storm modes potentially including bowing segments and possibly a couple of splitting supercells.
Overall, damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary hazards, with some tornado potential as well, albeit relatively limited and dependent on warm-sector development. While short-term uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, areas such as southeast Alabama and southwest/south-central Georgia will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible categorical Slight Risk upgrade, mainly for damaging wind potential.