6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 21. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
01z Update
Midlevel short-wave trough is advancing east across eastern CO/NM early this evening. In response, 850mb flow is beginning to increase across the southern Plains. Latest satellite/radar imagery support this with weak convection now developing in response to low-level warm advection across southern OK/AR. Later this evening, lightning is expected to develop with this activity downstream across the lower MS Valley, but forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE/lapse rates will be a bit too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe hail. As 850mb flow becomes more westerly late tonight, scattered convection will spread/develop across the Gulf States, especially along/north of the synoptic front which will be draped from central MS/AL into SC.