11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 for Friday, February 20. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES
SUMMARY
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.
Synopsis/Discussion
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.
To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral. While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong deep-layer shear.