6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, February 18. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.
Discussion
With an amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS, an upper low will continue to cross the Upper Midwest toward Lake Superior, with preceding warm/moist advection and DPVA contributing to isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Great Lakes region, mainly early today.
In the West, a band of convection will continue to move inland early this morning across coastal southern California in association with a cold front. Diminishing convective potential is otherwise expected today across most of California. However, isolated thunderstorm will be possible later this afternoon and tonight across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as a secondary shortwave trough digs southward along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies mainly this afternoon. Here, sufficient diurnal mixing and a zone of stronger mid-level southwesterly flow aloft could account for some convectively enhanced wind gusts, but overall severe potential should remain minimal.