6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, February 16. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
SUMMARY
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most likely.
Discussions
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00 and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will likely gradually reduce storm strength.
Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts. A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the strongly veering winds with height.