6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 15. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA
SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.
Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast. Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.
The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details. Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible.