11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 15. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama. Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.
Synopsis
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today, with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front, strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few tornadoes throughout the day.
Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line, though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.
Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with a few QLCS tornadoes possible.