11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 14. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi.
Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley
Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated severe threat.
Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.
Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of the period.