6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 14. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO SOUTHEAST KS
SUMMARY
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind are possible tonight through Saturday morning across parts of the southern Great Plains.
Southern Great Plains
Forecast largely remains as advertised with a corridor of generally marginal severe hail and wind potential from parts of west TX to southeast KS. See MCD 0071 for short-term discussion across the TX South Plains. Overall severe threat might increase overnight as an expanding swath of storms occurs with strengthening large-scale ascent downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest. Some models, most notably recent HRRR runs, are insistent on a meso-beta corridor of sustained storm structures developing in the pre-dawn hours in the Permian Basin vicinity of west TX. The 00Z MAF observed sounding confirmed a robust speed shear profile above 800 mb, which is expected to remain conditionally conducive to a couple mid-level supercells capable of large hail through early morning. However, the influx of low-level moisture from the south will remain modest and limit available buoyancy. In addition, storm mode should remain cluster-dominated, eventually evolving into a linear structure by 12Z towards the TX Big Country. These factors may curtail greater severe hail coverage overnight.